Nikon D7200 Shutter Life Expectancy

From https://www.olegkikin.com/shutterlife/nikon_d7200.htm:

My D7200 has low shutter count so I'm expecting to be able to use it for 10 years or so.

Nikon D7000 Shutter Life Expectancy

Since I've purchased the D7200, I wanted to tell the D7000.  I became curious as to how long it will keep working.  The shutter count is around 86,700.

Here is a graph of actual shutter counts before a D7000 would die from https://www.olegkikin.com/shutterlife/nikon_d7000.htm:

So, the survival rate seems to drop drastically after 50,000 actuations.  Is my D7000 on its last leg?  There are a couple of cameras still going strong after 500K actuactions!  I'd be happy if mine reaches Nion's stated shutter life of 150K which appears to me like an overstatement if the estimated survival rate is only about 60%.

Life expectancy of the D80

Back in June 2009 (http://photonfarmers.blogspot.com/2009/06/d80-actuations.html) I made a reference to this website that records the number of shutter actuations of various DSLRs before the shutter died. I thought I'd capture it once here so in case the site disappears I have a record of it. Make sure to visit the original site for the most up-to-date data.

Nikon D80

Direct link to this page: nikon_d80

Average number of actuations after which shutter is still alive: 65,511.5
Average number of actuations after which shutter died: 38,059.7

Clicks	Alive	Dead	Graph
397 … 653	5	3
654 … 1,074	1	1
1,075 … 1,768	5	2
1,769 … 2,909	21	2
2,910 … 4,786	43	1
4,787 … 7,875	74	3
7,876 … 12,957	116	10
12,958 … 21,318	137	7
21,319 … 35,074	126	2
35,075 … 57,708	85	2
57,709 … 94,947	38	3
94,948 … 156,217	9	3
156,218 … 257,024	6	1
257,025 … 422,882	2	1
422,883 … 695,768	1
695,769 … 1,144,748	2
1,144,749 … 1,883,453
1,883,454 … 3,098,845
3,098,846 … 5,098,528
5,098,529 … 8,388,607	3

Survival estimation (Kaplan-Meier):

Clicks	KM survival estimate	Graph
397 … 653	99.6%
654 … 1,074	99.4%
1,075 … 1,768	99.2%
1,769 … 2,909	98.9%
2,910 … 4,786	98.7%
4,787 … 7,875	98.3%
7,876 … 12,957	96.5%
12,958 … 21,318	94.9%
21,319 … 35,074	94.2%
35,075 … 57,708	93%
57,709 … 94,947	89%
94,948 … 156,217	79.5%
156,218 … 257,024	74.5%
257,025 … 422,882	66.2%
422,883 … 695,768	66.2%
695,769 … 1,144,748	66.2%
1,144,749 … 1,883,453	66.2%
1,883,454 … 3,098,845	66.2%
3,098,846 … 5,098,528	66.2%
5,098,529 … 8,388,607	66.2%

D80 actuations

At the rate that I shoot, I fear my D80 will die from too many shutter actuations. I wondered then how many actuations it can bear. There is no definitive answer but then I thought some averaging might help.

I found this website where people post their numbers: http://www.olegkikin.com/shutterlife/nikon_d80.htm

It would appear the chances of the shutter dying increase significantly after 90K clicks.

My D80 might have about 3 more years left to go. By that time, I would have upgraded. I hope.